[Polls] Blurple remains strong as fractured left begins to slowly recover

In a relatively interesting term during which both Government partners have simultaneously and repeatedly been accused of forcing their ideology onto each-other whilst the Opposition has been doing it's best impression of a cell undergoing mitosis, it is no wonder that the polls coming out of GEXIV look very different to the polls that will shape the electoral strategies of every party going into GEXV as the Parliamentary Issue can confirm with a set of new polling for a number of close (and not-so-close seats).

Lincolnshire

An agrarian seat which has always landed comfortably in the camps of the more right-leaning parties, Lincolnshire looks set to remain in that camp however potentially with a different party. Despite a conservative victory in the previous GE, the LPUK now lead the polls there despite a gain in Conservative favourability, and could mount a decisive challenge should they choose to forego their usual endorsement. The Liberal Democrats are also notably strong in the seat despite their vote share declining marginally and could likewise move to secure this seat for the Conservatives or the LPUK (or vice-versa) with their endorsement should blurple relations in that area break down.

Northern Ireland

Despite the UUP’s decline in the Northern Irish Assembly against the SDLP and LPNI/APNI that has seen them fall uncomfortably into 3rd place in recent Assembly polling, their hold on their MP seat has remained increasingly healthy in this set of polling, yet it would be remiss to claim that the seat remains a stronghold this race as the SDLP and APNI have both likewise seen their polling shares increase steadily throughout the course of the term. It seems that alongside the decline of PBP and the collapse of the IPP who were both major contenders in the previous GE, the UUP will realistically for the first time, likely face a potential challenger that could viably clench the seat from them in the General Election with current indicators pointing to the SDLP being best able to do so with potential endorsements from the Labour Party and the Green Party strengthening their bid.

Sussex

The takeaway from Sussex is that it’s rather obviously going to remain in the pocket of the Libertarians going into the next General Election. Their polling has seen a staggering increase since the conclusion of GEXIV especially given that their most serious contender was an independent who has since presumably retired from politics. The Liberal Democrat’s have also seen a notable increase from their poor GE performance however they, like everyone else… will be unlikely to mount an effective challenge for this seat anytime soon.

Lothian and Fife

Lothian and Fife is admittedly in the same boat as Sussex in this set of polling, the Liberal Democrats won overwhelmingly in what was a seemingly low turnout during GEXIV and look set to repeat that next term with double the polling of any other contending party regardless of endorsements.

Lancashire South

One of the only seats in this polling set to have been swinging with this margin, Lancashire South, the rural community, which was once an ardent supporter of workers and the left ideology have all swinged right, and the election campaign could tell you why. The Conservatives took a more rural area oriented approach in the last General Election which enabled them to garner more votes than they possibly could. This seat sees a slight increase of vote share to the Conservatives, however the Libertarians have lost around half of its supporting base in Lancashire throughout the term and whether they endorse the Conservatives as they did last term or not, this seat will almost certainly be a safe Conservative seat going into GEXV

Manchester City and South

One seats that has always typically swung towards Labour, Manchester City and the South, is the typical urban seat, an environment in which the Labour usually perform really well, and this seat is something that has over the recent times, taken a dip in support for Labour who are struggling to regain the lost trust now. The biggest losers in this seat would be the DRF, who have lost more than 2/3rd their supporters in this urban constituency. TPM have also lost a stunning 7% in four months, but this support base has now shifted to Solidarity completely. The Greens, Coalition! and Solidarity have now made it more difficult for Labour to otherwise retain a stronghold seat especially against a likely unified blurple contender.

All in all, Blurple looks set to perform well at the next General Election in these constituencies however the marginal increase in support for the Solidarity in areas such as Northern Ireland coinciding with a good performance for the Lib Dems could see that all changed in the not-so-distant future should Labour recover from it's downfall.

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- Written by Bryan N. Gaskin and Priti Sitharaman on behalf of the Parliamentary Issue